![]() ![]() Besides being a great political philosopher, he was also a political prophet.ĭiscussions of Tocqueville’s prophetic prowess usually begin with his remarkable prediction in Democracy in America, more than 100 years before the Cold War, that “there are two great peoples on the earth today who, starting from different points, seem to advance toward the same goal: these are the Russians and the Anglo-Americans.… each of them seems called by a secret design of Providence to hold the destinies of half the world in its hands one day.” Though the Cold War is over, continuing tensions between Russia and the United States show that Tocqueville’s prediction remains all-too-relevant. ![]() But Alexis de Tocqueville was, to some degree, an exception. Human behavior and social phenomena are just too complex to be predictable. ![]() When social scientists predict the future, they almost always get it wrong. ![]()
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